AKTS-Thermokinetics Help  
1. About the program
2. Data input
3. Baseline and kinetics
4. Prediction of the reaction progress
  > 4.1. Toolbar
> 4.2. Confidence interval
> 4.3. Experimental temperature mode
> 4.4. Isothermal temperature mode
> 4.5. Non-isothermal temperature mode
> 4.6. Stepwise temperature mode
> 4.7. Modulated temperature mode
> 4.8. Shock temperature mode
> 4.9. Real atmospheric temperature mode
> 4.10 Adiabatic temperature mode
5. References
 
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4. PREDICTION OF THE REACTION PROGRESS

Live video : T-Adiabatic - TMRad

Live video : T-Adiabatic - ARC

Live video : T-Adiabatic - Induction time

Live video : -Adiabatic - Heat rate curves

4.10. ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE MODE: Prediction of the reaction progress (-), development of the temperatures and adiabatic induction times for selected starting temperatures and T-adiabatic (Hr/cp with Hr : heat of reaction and cp : heat capacity).

(With AKTS-Thermokinetics Software version < 2.28)


(With AKTS-Thermokinetics Software version >= 2.28)


Example:

Thermal risks : Calculation of adiabatic thermal transformation and heat accumulation from non-isothermal DSC measurements

The precise prediction of reaction progress under adiabatic conditions is necessary for the safety analysis of many technological processes [19-23]. Calculations of an adiabatic temperature-time curve of the reaction progress can also be used to determine the decrease of the thermal stability of materials during storage at temperatures near the threshold temperature for triggering the reaction. Due to insufficient thermal convection and limited thermal conductivity, a progressive temperature increase in the sample can easily take place, resulting in an explosion.

Commonly used, simplified approach for the determination of the TMRad applies the following formula with the arbitrarily chosen zero-order reaction [24]:

TMRad = cp R To2/(qo Ea)

where:
cp - specific heat,
qo - maximum specific heat flux measured during an isothermal exposure at the temperature To
Ea - activation energy of the reaction,
R - gas constant. 

However, when applying above approach to predict the TMRad the only one, simplified zero-order kinetic equation is used by fitting the reaction/decomposition exotherms by the Arrhenius relationship. This method gives unfortunately a very rough approximation of the TMRad due to the severe assumptions made concerning both the kinetics and the constancy of the value of the activation energy. As presented in
the next figure the activation energy is strongly dependent on the reaction progress for the considered compounds. In addition, it can be observed that the different compositions of the mixtures as well as the different experimental conditions (isochoric/isobaric) strongly influence the dependence of the activation energy on the reaction extent. The solution of the problem should therefore be achieved numerically. The computations have to consider the dependence of the activation energy on the reaction progress and the optimization of the baselines. For predictions with a certain level of accuracy, advanced kinetic analysis is therefore required because most decomposition reactions are complex combinations of several steps.


Figure: Activation energy of the B/KNO3 samples as a function of the reaction progress for closed and open crucibles. The activation energy is strongly dependent on the reaction progress. It can be observed that the different compositions of the mixtures influence strongly the dependence of the activation energy on the reaction extent. These differences will strongly influence the prediction of decomposition progress for other temperature profiles.

The kinetic parameters calculated from the non-isothermal experiments then make
possible the prediction of the reaction progress for any other heating rate and more generally for any temperature mode. In the following figures the results of computations performed with AKTS-Thermokinetics software are shown for the different B/KNO3 mixtures.
- Left column in all figures presents the reaction rates (normalized DSC-signals after correctly calculated baselines and kinetics) as a function of the temperature for the various B/KNO3 mixtures under isobaric and isochoric conditions. Experimental data are represented as symbols, solid lines represent the calculated signals. The values of the heating rate in °C/min are marked on the curves.
- Right column shows the reaction progress as a function of time under isothermal conditions. The values of the temperature in °C are marked on the curves. Results of some experiments done under isothermal conditions are presented together with the predicted relationships.


Figure: B/KNO3 50:50 (closed crucibles / isochoric conditions).


Figure: B/KNO3 30:70 (closed crucibles / isochoric conditions).


Figure: B/KNO3 50:50 (open crucibles / isobaric conditions).


Figure: B/KNO3 30:70 (open crucibles / isobaric conditions).


Figure: B/KNO3 20:80 (open crucibles / isobaric conditions).

Decomposition reactions generally involve different reactions with various activation energies. They are thus influenced in different ways by the temperature. This is illustrated by the fact that, according to the temperature range taken into consideration
, it is one of the reactions that will dominate. In fact, a mistake about the energy of activation can have dramatic consequences as far as the safety of a process is concerned. It is thus strongly recommended to verify the results according to an isothermal measurement achieved directly in the temperature range taken into consideration. This is particularly important for the safety analysis of storage and transport of potentially reactive materials.

The potential damages due to a loss of control of a reaction are also related to the quantity of heat released. The heat of reaction is one of the key data required for correct evaluation of the potential risks. Estimating the thermal risks involves the evaluation of the severity and the probability
of generating a runaway reaction. In order to find and elaborate the appropriate measures that will reduce the risks, it is crucial to evaluate which part the severity and the probability play in the case of thermal risks. The thermal risk related to a chemical reaction is the risk of loss of control of a reaction and its possible consequences such as, for example, a runaway risk. It is thus essential to understand how a reaction can shift from its normal course to a runaway situation [25-30]. For all exothermic reactions, the heat of reaction is a factor of severity. It gives a direct measure of consequences which result from a runaway destruction potential. A more common and easier value to use and understand is the adiabatic temperature rise. The adiabatic rise can be calculated by dividing the heat of reaction by the specific heat.


Figure: Adiabatic runaway curves for the various B/KNO3 mixtures under isochoric and isobaric conditions for a starting temperature of 370°C. The different B/KNO3 composition ratios as well as the TMRad are marked on the runaway curves. Under isochoric conditions the B/KNO3 mixtures are thermally by order of magnitude less stable than under isobaric conditions. Similar behaviour is observed when comparing the different compositions of B/KNO3 mixtures. It can be observed that mixtures with equimolar ratios have both, for the experimental conditions considered, shorter TMRad (or lower thermal stability) and smaller Tad (or lower heat of reaction).

Using the reaction heat
DHr presented in the next table and a specific heat cp of 1.62 J/g/°C for the various B/KNO3 mixtures under isochoric and isobaric conditions, one can calculate the reaction progress due to self-heating for the different DTad (with DTad = DHr/cp). The above figure and next table present the results of such calculations for a starting temperature of 370°C. The results illustrate how the thermal stability of representative samples may be investigated using DSC experiments and advanced kinetic analysis. 

Table :
DHr, DTad = DHr/cp (cp = 1.62 J/g/°C) and TMRad of the different B/KNO3 mixtures for a starting temperature of 370°C.

Compounds

DHr [J/g]

DTad = DHr/cp [°C]

TMRad

B/KNO3 - isochoric conditions:
50:50
30:70

B/KNO3 - isobaric conditions:
50:50
30:70
20:80

 
4248 ± 119.9
6291 ± 245.3


2010 ± 161.6
4021 ± 246
5221 ± 247.3

 
2622 ± 74
3883 ± 151.4


1240 ± 99.7
2482 ± 151.8
3222 ± 152.6

 
7 sec
12 min


58 min
112 min
28.5 hours

 
 (A) Adiabatic runaway curves for the B/KNO3 mixture (20:80) under isobaric conditions showing the confidence interval for the prediction (Tbegin=370°C and
DTad=DHr/cp=3222±152.6°C). The confidence interval was determined for 95% probability. (B) Starting temperature and corresponding adiabatic induction time TMRad relationship of the mixture with ratio 20:80 under isobaric conditions. The choice of the starting temperatures strongly influences the adiabatic induction time (Confidence interval: 95% probability).

As for the determination of the correct course of the baseline, the predictions of the reaction progress will spread (with Gaussian distribution) around an average value. The predictions of the reaction progress for a given temperature profile will give the 'central tendency', for which the chance of the good reproducibility on subsequent measurements is maximal. The illustration of these remarks for the investigation of the B/KNO3 mixture with ratio 20:80 under isobaric conditions for a starting temperature of 370°C is presented in
the above figure. The mean value of the TMRad prediction is about 28.5 hours. The lower and upper limits of the confidence intervals are 21.7 and 37.4 hours, respectively. These values indicate that there is a 95% probability that the mean TMRad is greater than 21.7 hours and lower than 37.4 hours. The previous figure and next table present the relationship between the starting temperature and corresponding adiabatic induction time TMRad. The confidence interval was determined for 95% probability. Depending on the decomposition kinetics and Tad, the choice of the starting temperatures strongly influences the adiabatic induction time and, therefore, the boundary conditions valid for achieving necessary safety (e.g. storage or transport of self-reactive substances).


Table: Starting temperature and corresponding adiabatic induction time TMRad relationship of the B/KNO3 mixture with ratio 20:80 under isobaric conditions. The choice of the starting temperatures strongly influences the adiabatic induction time (Confidence interval: 95% probability).



The adiabatic induction time is defined as the time which is needed for self-heating from the start temperature to the time of maximum rate (TMRad) under adiabatic conditions. Depending on the decomposition kinetics and
Tad, the choice of the starting temperatures strongly influences the time to explosion but also the rate of the decomposition process under adiabatic conditions. The next figure presents the heat rate curves of the B/KNO3 mixture with ratio 30:70 under isochoric conditions for different starting temperatures.


Figure: Heat rate curves versus temperature for the B/KNO3 mixture with ratio 30:70 under isochoric conditions.
 

Additional comments:

Quantitative Predictions of Thermal Hazards

All energetic materials, e.g. explosives or propellants, release heat during decomposition. The rate of the decomposition depends on the temperature. From a box full of oily rags or a barn full of hay to a rocket motor filled with solid propellant, energetic materials can self-heat with unfortunate results. Processing, design, quality control, and operational applications of systems using energetic materials all require an understanding of thermal hazards and an ability to predict safety limits.

The calculation of adiabatic reaction progresses and/or explosion conditions from results of DSC/DTA measurements is often desirable because of the small amounts of material available. The precise predictions of such reaction progresses can be required in safety analysis of many technological processes. Calculations of an adiabatic temperature-time curve of the reaction progress can also be used to determine the decrease of the thermal stability of materials during storage at temperatures near the temperature of the beginning reaction. Due to insufficient thermal convection and limited thermal conductivity, a progressive temperature increase in the sample can easily take place, resulting in an explosion. The determination of:
- the critical starting temperatures,
- development of the temperatures
- and adiabatic induction times
 
are important parameters both for the production as well as for the storage of potentially explosive materials.


Thermal Stability

Several methods have been presented for predictions of the reaction progress of exothermic reactions under adiabatic conditions [19-24]. However, because decomposition reactions usually have a multi-step nature, the accurate determination of the kinetic characteristics strongly influences the ability to correctly describe the progress of the reaction. For adiabatic self-heating reactions, incorrect kinetic description of the process is usually the main source of serious errors in its interpretation.

The assumption that the decomposition of an energetic material will obey a simple rate law is not often true. Solid state reactions are often too complex to be described in terms of a single pair of Arrhenius parameters and the traditional set of reaction models [1-3]. As a general rule, solid state reactions demonstrate profoundly multi-step characteristics. They can involve several processes with different activation energies and mechanisms. Changes in mechanism associated with complex reactions can cause changes in heat of reaction (Hr) and in the kinetic description of the proceeding reaction. When mechanisms change during the course of a reaction, it is not valid to "linearize" the rate data for the entire process to obtain a single rate constant. In addition, methods of the prediction of the summary reaction progress which consider only one kinetic parameter, namely the "activation energy" and ignore the others such as the pre-exponential factor and the model function, are an over simplification of reality. A reliable numerical technique applied in solid state kinetics should be able to consider several activation energy values for the description of the solid state reaction extent. The correct choice of all the kinetic parameters strongly influences the ability to properly describe the progress of the reaction. The validity of approaches, which consider exclusively the activation energy values for the determination of the kinetic characteristics of solid state reactions, cannot be accepted. It is hazardous to develop safety predictive models that are based on simplified kinetics determined by DSC, DTA or any other methods. It is extremely dangerous to use such simplified models for large-scale predictions.

The determination of the appropriate rate equations is a prerequisite for the correct analysis of the kinetics of the decomposition of energetic materials. The reaction products formed during the early (induction), intermediate (acceleratory), and late (decay) periods of a self-heated reaction can be considerably different. Changes in mechanism during decomposition can result in changes in the kinds of gas produced as well as their amounts.


Adiabatic induction time

The assumption that it is safe to handle an energetic material at any temperature below the first appearance of an exothermic signal on the DSC or DTA curve can often be false. Under perfect adiabatic conditions, there is some delay at any temperature before the materials reach their maximum rate of decomposition. When the temperature of any energetic material is increased, it will either decompose quietly (ultimately rupturing its confinement as a result of the production of gaseous products), self-heat to explosion or detonation [31-32], or ignite and burn.

One very important criterion for thermal safety is the "critical temperature" (Tc), defined as the lowest constant temperature at which a specific material of a specific size and shape will self-heat catastrophically. It must be remembered, however, that energetic materials still decompose at temperatures below the critical temperature. Determination of critical temperature is a very important test to be run on energetic materials. If they are sealed in a container, gas pressure will build up until the container ruptures and the result may look like an "explosion". Extremely violent responses can be expected at temperatures above Tc.

The highest safe temperature for handling any energetic material depends essentially on its size, shape, and previous thermal history. The critical temperature is very sensitive to changes in size in the small-size range. It can change by several degrees for smaller sizes. If we carry out measurements in 50 cm geometry and make the assumption that an 8 m charge would survive the same temperature, an accident would almost certainly be the result. It is therefore very important to predict the induction time under adiabatic conditions. The adiabatic induction time is defined as the time which is needed for the self-heating from the start temperature to the time of maximum rate. The adiabatic induction time is an important parameter to determine when the thermal safety of any material or process is in question. The time to maximum reaction rate (or explosion in some cases) can also be used for quality control purposes. A reduced adiabatic induction time for a new sample of a specific energetic material indicates a less stable material. Similarly, when considering compatibility problems, reductions in time to explosion and/or critical temperature when another material is mixed with the explosive one indicate incompatibilities. Slight changes in purity or composition, introduction of defects into crystal due to pressing, past history of a sample, and/or fabrication or formulation methods can cause major changes of the time to explosion. These changes can be very large and unexpected.

One important aspect of AKTS-Thermokinetics Software is that it can provide a small-scale test for quantitative thermal-hazard predictions. The adiabatic induction time of an energetic material can be determined rapidly for any starting temperature.

Caution: For explosives, explosion or partial detonation of a few mg sample can be extremely destructive. Tests must be run with adequate shielding.  

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